Bitcoin fell below the psychological threshold of $60,000 on June 24, 2026, reaching a low of $59,510 before modestly rebounding to $60,799. This move places BTC in the “BTC is dead” zone of the famous Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, an indicator created over a decade ago to visualize market cycles. Should this be seen as a capitulation signal or, on the contrary, a historic buying opportunity?
The Rainbow Chart: A Cult Tool
Originally created in 2014 by a Reddit user under the pseudonym “u/azop,” the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart overlays logarithmic color bands on Bitcoin’s price to indicate market phases. The lowest band, dark in color, has been dubbed “BTC is dead” — an ironic reference to the countless times Bitcoin has been declared dead by mainstream media, only to rebound spectacularly.
Historically, each entry into this zone has been followed by a significant medium-term rebound:
- 2015: “BTC is dead” zone at ~$200 → rally to $20,000 in 2017
- 2019: zone at ~$3,200 → rebound to $14,000
- 2022-2023: zone at ~$16,000 → rally to $74,000 in 2024
Why is Bitcoin Falling Today?
Several converging factors explain this sharp decline:
- Macroeconomics: the “debasement trade” (gold, silver, bitcoin) is unwinding simultaneously, signaling a massive liquidation of “hard” assets in favor of cash
- SpaceX: the $600 billion drop in SpaceX’s valuation created a liquidity shock in the markets, forcing forced sales
- Correlation to DXY: the US dollar index surged, exerting additional pressure on risky assets
- Extreme sentiment: the Fear & Greed Index fell to 17/100, its lowest level since the 2023 bottom
10x Research Predicts a Floor at $55,000
Analysis firm 10x Research estimates that Bitcoin could still correct down to $55,000 before finding a true floor. This projection is based on an analysis of technical levels and capital flows. “The market is in a prolonged distribution phase,” explains an analyst. “Miners are selling, ETFs are seeing outflows, and sentiment is at rock bottom. This is exactly the kind of setup that precedes cycle bottoms.”
Paradoxically, the “BTC is dead” zone of the Rainbow Chart has always, in hindsight, been an optimal accumulation zone for long-term investors. But as the famous warning from BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes reminds us: “The hardest part is buying when everyone is selling.”
On-Chain Analysis: Mixed Signals
On-chain data sends conflicting signals. On one hand, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are increasing, a sign that short-term holders are liquidating their positions. On the other, accumulating addresses (those that...
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