While the general sentiment remains extremely negative with a Fear & Greed index at 12/100 and record outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, a technical signal is gaining ground among analysts: the bullish RSI divergence on Bitcoin’s weekly charts bears similarities to the 2022 bear market bottom.
Specifically, the weekly RSI is forming higher lows while Bitcoin’s price continues to form lower lows. This divergence — the price drops but selling momentum weakens — is historically one of the most reliable reversal signals in technical analysis.
“We are observing the same configuration as in November 2022, just before Bitcoin hit its bottom at $15,500,” explains a technical analyst cited by CoinTelegraph. “Back then, everyone was calling for the end of Bitcoin. Yet the RSI was showing that sellers were exhausting themselves. Today, the context is different — we are at $60,000 — but the technical structure is identical.”
This “2022-style bear market bottom” scenario rests on several pillars: confirmed on-chain capitulation (50,000 BTC moved at a loss), a Fear & Greed index in extreme territory for seven consecutive days, and record ETF outflows. Ironically, these bearish indicators are precisely those that have historically preceded the biggest rebounds.
However, analysts warn that a bullish divergence does not guarantee an immediate rebound. In 2022, several weeks elapsed between the appearance of the divergence and the actual start of the rally. The coming week will be decisive: if Bitcoin closes above $62,000, the divergence would be confirmed. Otherwise, a test of $57,000 remains possible.
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