Clarity Act odds hit record low on Polymarket, Trump meets senators

Par La Rédaction
Publié le 17 July 2026

Regulation

Clarity Act: Passage Odds Hit All-Time Low on Polymarket, Trump Meets Senators, Ethical Debate Intensifies

The Clarity Act, the U.S. federal bill aiming to regulate digital assets, is navigating a new phase of political uncertainty. As discussions intensify in Washington, prediction markets reflect growing pessimism about the bill’s adoption. On Polymarket, the leading blockchain-based prediction platform, the odds of the Clarity Act passing have fallen to an all-time low, signaling a major shift in market participants’ perceptions.

This development comes amid a charged political backdrop. President Trump, who has positioned himself as a strong advocate for the crypto industry since returning to the White House, has met with key senators to discuss the bill’s future. Meanwhile, the ethical debate around the Clarity Act has intensified, fueled by statements from the Blockchain Association’s CEO, who has taken a stand on the bill’s moral and regulatory implications.

Polymarket: A Real-Time Indicator of Political Confidence

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to bet on real-world events, from elections to policy decisions and economic regulations. Unlike traditional polls, which capture a snapshot at a given moment, prediction markets provide a dynamic, financially motivated measure of an event’s perceived probability. The principle is simple: the higher the estimated probability, the higher the price of the token representing that scenario, and vice versa.

For the Clarity Act, the Polymarket market has seen a steady decline in passage probabilities over recent weeks. Several factors explain this trend: the controversy surrounding presidential pardons, growing opposition from certain senators, and the ethical debates surrounding the bill.

Trump Meets Senators to Save the Clarity Act

Faced with eroding odds of passage, President Trump has stepped up direct lobbying efforts with senators. According to reports from CoinDesk and CoinTelegraph, several meetings have taken place at the White House in recent days, bringing together Republican and Democratic senators at the negotiating table.

The goal of these meetings is twofold: first, to reassure lawmakers worried about the bill’s ethical implications, and second, to find a compromise that would secure the necessary votes for the Clarity Act to pass the Senate. The task is daunting, as positions have hardened considerably in recent weeks.

The most recent meeting reportedly focused on potential amendments to the bill, particularly concerning the controversial ethics clause. This clause, aimed at regulating relations between traditional financial institutions and the digital asset sector, is seen by some senators as insufficiently protective, while others consider it too restrictive.

Ethical Debate Intensifies with the Blockchain Association

The Blockchain Association, the leading trade group representing the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry in the United States, has inserted itself at the heart of the debate. Its CEO has taken a firm stance on the ethical aspects of the Clarity Act, defending the importance of a balanced regulatory framework that protects consumers while fostering innovation.

This intervention is significant because the Blockchain Association counts the biggest names in the American crypto industry among its members. Its position on the Clarity Act directly shapes how investors and market players perceive the bill. The organization has published a series of recommendations aimed at strengthening the ethical provisions of the bill without hindering the sector’s development.

The ethical debate centers on several sensitive issues: transparency of mining and staking operations, user data protection, combating conflicts of interest on exchange platforms, and the oversight of stablecoins. These are all areas where the Clarity Act proposes provisions that deeply divide stakeholders.

The Three Articles Structuring the Debate

Several recent analyses have helped structure the debate around the Clarity Act. Three articles in particular, published by specialized media outlets, have caught the attention of industry players.

The first article addresses the political dimension of the bill, highlighting the unexpected alliances that have formed around it. From pro-business Republicans to innovation-friendly Democrats, the Clarity Act has temporarily transcended traditional partisan divides, even if recent controversies threaten to break this fragile consensus.

The second article focuses on the potential economic impact of the Clarity Act. According to several analysts, the proposed regulatory framework could unlock hundreds of billions of dollars in institutional investment in digital assets. Major American banks, watching the sector’s development with a mix of interest and caution, are awaiting regulatory clarity before massively rolling out their crypto offerings.

The third article examines the international implications of the Clarity Act. With the European Union already adopting the MiCA framework and several Asian jurisdictions developing their own regulations, the United States can no longer afford to delay adopting a clear framework without risking its leadership position in financial innovation.

Banking Opposition Maintains Pressure

The opposition from the traditional banking sector to the Clarity Act remains a major source of uncertainty. Major American...