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Publié le 11 July 2026

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Prediction Markets Enter the Big Leagues: Polymarket Engages the CFTC, Wall Street Tightens Its Grip, Backpack Tokenizes Stocks

On July 10, 2026, as Bitcoin hovered around $63,800, a little-known sector of the crypto ecosystem suddenly caught the attention of traditional financial institutions. Prediction markets, long considered an experimental sub-genre of decentralized finance, crossed a decisive threshold toward institutional recognition. No fewer than three major developments occurred within a matter of hours, signaling that these platforms are no longer a niche curiosity but rather an asset class in the process of being regulated and adopted by Wall Street.

Polymarket, the leading prediction market platform on the blockchain, officially filed a request with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to obtain authorization to offer margin trading to its U.S. clients. Simultaneously, major Wall Street banks were tightening their internal rules regarding the use of prediction markets by their employees, amid growing fears of insider trading. Finally, Backpack, an emerging platform, joined the race for tokenized stocks available 24/7. Three converging signals are reshaping the contours of a sector undergoing profound transformation.

Polymarket Takes the Regulatory Leap

Polymarket’s request to the CFTC represents a major strategic turning point. Until now, the platform mainly operated through perpetual contracts and spot trading on real-world events — elections, sports results, economic decisions. Adding margin trading would open the door to larger positions and increased liquidity, potentially attracting institutional traders who have been held back by the lack of regulated financial products.

This move comes at a time when the CFTC itself is seeking to modernize its regulatory framework for on-chain derivatives. Earlier this month, major DeFi players such as Phantom and Hyperliquid also approached the U.S. regulator to obtain rules adapted to blockchain-based derivatives. Polymarket’s request fits into this broader trend: the crypto industry no longer wants to bypass regulators; it wants a seat at the table.

The stakes are high. Prediction markets have demonstrated their usefulness as collective forecasting tools, often more accurate than traditional polls. The 2024 U.S. presidential election propelled Polymarket into the spotlight, with record volumes exceeding $3 billion. Since then, the platform has continued to grow, attracting the attention of regulators as well as institutional investors seeking new hedging instruments.

To better understand the significance of this step, it is worth examining what margin trading means in practice. Margin trading allows investors to borrow funds from a platform to increase the size of their positions, amplifying both potential gains and losses. For prediction markets, this could mean that traders can take larger bets on event outcomes, thereby deepening liquidity and potentially making these markets more reflective of real-world probabilities. However, margin trading also introduces higher risk, which is why regulatory oversight is crucial. By seeking CFTC approval, Polymarket is signaling its willingness to adhere to stringent capital requirements, customer protection rules, and reporting standards — a marked departure from the largely unregulated environment that characterized its earlier operations.

Wall Street Tightens Its Grip on Prediction Markets

Paradoxically, just as Polymarket sought to move closer to the regulatory fold, major American banks were tightening their own rules regarding these platforms. Several Wall Street institutions have recently strengthened their internal policies, prohibiting or limiting the use of prediction markets by their employees, fearing that these tools could facilitate insider trading.

This concern is not unfounded. Prediction markets theoretically allow an employee with privileged information about a company to bet on the movement of its stock price or on an upcoming strategic decision, in a way that is more difficult to trace than traditional markets. The transparency of the blockchain, although public, does not prevent the creation of anonymous wallets.

The banks involved have not publicly disclosed the details of their new rules, but multiple sources indicate that restrictions specifically target decentralized platforms like Polymarket, where transactions are irreversible and identities are harder to verify. This tightening echoes a broader concern of the U.S. regulator, which worries about the use of blockchain technologies to circumvent the transparency obligations of traditional financial markets.

Yet the same regulator seems to want to regulate rather than prohibit. Polymarket’s request for margin trading, if approved, would set an important precedent: that of a prediction market platform operating under the direct supervision of the CFTC, with compliance, anti-money laundering, and investor protection rules comparable to those of traditional exchanges. This dual movement — banks restricting internal use while a platform seeks regulatory blessing — highlights the tension between the disruptive potential of these markets and the need for oversight. For employees of financial institutions, the risk is clear: a bet on a prediction market could be seen as exploiting non-public information, especially if the event relates to a corporate action such as a merger or earnings release. The blockchain’s pseudonymity does not shield them from investigations, as on-chain analysis can often link...