Is the crypto bear market coming to an end? The market data speaks for itself: Bitcoin has reached $62,537 on July 4, 2026, its highest level in 9 days, with the total crypto market capitalization nearing $2.25 trillion. But this is not just a simple technical rebound — it’s the confirmation of a fundamental trend that has been taking shape for several weeks.
Bitcoin ETFs: The Return of Institutions
The strongest signal comes from spot Bitcoin ETFs. For the first time since May 2026, daily inflows have exceeded $200 million. BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and other issuers have recorded positive flows for 5 consecutive days — a pattern not seen since the wave of inflows in February.
“Institutions are gradually returning,” analyzes a trader at FalconX. “ETFs are the most reliable thermometer of large portfolio appetite. When they accumulate over 5 days, it’s a structural buying signal, not a retail pump.”
ETH and SOL Outperform — Rotation Underway
Ethereum has posted a 10.98% gain over 7 days, reaching $1,756, while Solana has surged 15.38% over the same period. This outperformance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin is a classic bullish signal: risk appetite is returning to the crypto market.
Analysts are observing a rotation of capital from traditional tech stocks (semiconductors declining) toward digital assets. Semiconductors are losing momentum as Bitcoin rebounds — a sign that investors are reallocating capital toward crypto.
Price Rises, Sentiment Follows — Slowly
The Fear & Greed Index remains in Extreme Fear territory at 22/100, but it has recovered from its cycle low of 11/100. This is the strongest price-sentiment disconnect observed since the start of the cycle: the market is pricing in the recovery before mass sentiment catches up.
This gap is historically bullish. When prices rise while the crowd is still panicked, savvy investors typically have a window of opportunity before FOMO pushes prices even higher.
Macro Signals Turn Green
The macroeconomic environment is improving. Fears of Fed rate hikes are fading, benefiting risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The DXY (dollar index) is declining, providing a favorable backdrop for global financial markets.
A Bitcoin on-chain indicator nicknamed the “supply metric buy signal” — which had not been triggered since late 2022 — has recently activated. The last time this signal appeared, Bitcoin was at $16,000 before multiplying by 6 over 18 months.
Semiconductors Lose Steam
An additional sign of capital rotation: semiconductor stocks (NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC) are losing momentum. For months, the narrative was that “AI and semiconductors are the only games in town.” Today, investors are diversifying into digital assets.
This rotation is consistent with the global liquidity cycle: when tech stock markets plateau, capital seeks returns elsewhere — and crypto, after 18 months of bear market, offers discounted valuations.
Key Takeaways
The crypto bear market is showing convergent end-of-cycle signals: positive ETF flows, altcoin outperformance, bullish on-chain signals, rotation from semiconductors to crypto, and sentiment still fearful, leaving room for upside surprise.
This is not yet the return of the 2024 bull run, but the...
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