Crypto prediction markets are experiencing a schizophrenic moment. BitMart US is launching one of the first regulated prediction market offerings in the United States — a major regulatory opening. Simultaneously, the Massachusetts Attorney General has filed an amended complaint against Kalshi over sports betting — a legal threat that could redefine the boundaries of what prediction markets can offer.
BitMart US: The Regulated Opening
BitMart US has announced the launch of one of the first regulated prediction market offerings in the United States. This initiative allows American users to bet on the outcome of events — elections, economic indicators, sports results — within a clear regulatory framework. The service offers limited-regulation contracts, building on an existing money transmission license.
This decision marks a significant milestone: prediction markets, long confined to a regulatory gray zone in the United States, are beginning to find their place within the regulated financial system. Polymarket, the industry leader based abroad, has been barred from the US market since its settlement with the CFTC.
Kalshi: The Legal Threat
But while BitMart opens one door, another closes. The Massachusetts Attorney General has filed an amended complaint against Kalshi — one of the leading regulated prediction market operators in the United States — concerning its sports betting offerings. The complaint alleges that Kalshi operates unlicensed gambling, an argument that could have repercussions across the entire sector.
An American Regulatory Paradox
This dual signal — opening for BitMart, crackdown for Kalshi — illustrates the American regulatory paradox in prediction markets. On one hand, the CFTC authorizes certain event contracts (elections, economy); on the other, individual states pursue operators for similar products. This legal fragmentation complicates the development of a unified prediction market in the United States.
For investors and industry players, the stakes are clear: prediction markets represent one of the most promising applications of blockchain — but their future will depend on resolving this regulatory conflict between federal and state authorities.
DailyCryptoNews provides information, analysis and educational content. No published content constitutes investment advice, financial recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any asset.
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