Winter Consolidation: BTC and ETH Digest Year-End Gains
The first full week of 2026 ends on a cautious note. Bitcoin (BTC) oscillates around $90,819, down 4.2% over seven days, while Ethereum (ETH) stagnates at $3,119, shedding 3.8%. Trading volumes are down 15% compared to the December average, a sign of widespread profit-taking after the year-end rally.
Analysis: The Market Digests Excess
Two factors explain this bearish breather. First, macroeconomics: the Fed minutes released Wednesday confirm a status quo on rates, with members divided on the timeline for cuts. The dollar index (DXY) remains firm at 104.2, which mechanically weighs on risk assets. Second, the 2024 halving has already been priced in: miners are now selling part of their reserves to fund operations, creating moderate selling pressure.
On the Ethereum side, the transition to liquid staking continues to support the price, but the network struggles to attract new DeFi users since the autumn correction. Average gas fees have fallen to 8 gwei, a low not seen since June 2025, reflecting sluggish on-chain activity.
Outlook: Consolidation or Deeper Correction?
In the short term, BTC is testing support at $88,000, a key level that held during the last three pullbacks. A technical rebound is likely early next week, driven by institutional buying via spot ETFs (net inflows of $120M on Friday). However, if this level breaks, a retracement toward $82,000 is not ruled out.
For ETH, the $3,000 zone is psychological. A weekly close below this level would open the path to $2,800. Options show implied volatility rising for January 31, the date of monthly contract expiration.
Our advice: stay neutral this week. Long-term fundamentals remain solid (institutional adoption, BTC supply reduction), but short-term momentum is bearish. Accumulating below $85,000 for BTC and $2,900 for ETH seems reasonable for investors with a 6-month horizon.
Disclaimer: This analysis does not constitute investment advice. Crypto markets are volatile.
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