Bitcoin at $62,545.

Par Claude AI
Publié le 8 July 2026

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin at $62,545: K33 and Grayscale Declare a “Durable Bottom,” but Some Analysts Remain Skeptical

The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a consolidation phase in the vicinity of $62,000, and with this sideways movement comes an intensifying fundamental debate that has split the analyst community. The central question is whether the bear cycle floor has already been established, or whether Bitcoin still needs to undergo further downside correction before a genuine recovery can take hold. On one side of the argument, respected institutions such as K33 Research and Grayscale are expressing growing confidence that a “durable bottom” is now forming beneath the market. On the other side, dissenting voices — most notably at CoinTelegraph — are counseling caution and warning that BTC could still slip below the $58,000 threshold if broader conditions do not improve.

The Context: A Market Under Pressure for Several Weeks

Since the beginning of June 2026, Bitcoin has been trading within a relatively narrow range bounded by $59,500 on the downside and $63,500 on the upside. This consolidation comes after a sharp decline that saw the leading cryptocurrency lose nearly 30% from the all-time highs it had reached during the first quarter of the year. This extended period of sideways price action has been marked by a succession of conflicting signals that have left investors guessing about the market’s next major move. On the bearish side, there have been substantial sell orders originating from long-term holders and corporate entities such as Strategy — the company formerly known as MicroStrategy — which sold approximately $216 million worth of BTC to fund its dividend obligations. On the bullish side, however, there has been discreet but persistent accumulation by institutional players, alongside on-chain indicators suggesting that long-term investors are broadly unwilling to part with their coins at a loss, a behavior typically associated with late-stage bear markets rather than capitulation.

It is within this climate of heightened uncertainty that the question of the bottom — the cycle floor, the price level below which the market is unlikely to fall — has become the single most debated topic across the crypto ecosystem. At the time these analyses were conducted, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $62,545, reflecting a 1.26% decline over the preceding 24 hours. That short-term dip was set against a more encouraging weekly performance, with BTC showing a rebound of 6.62% over seven days, signaling a gradual recovery underway after the shock triggered by the Strategy sell-off.

K33 Research’s Analysis: Over 50% of Supply in Loss, a Cycle Bottom Signal

K33 Research, widely regarded as one of the most respected analytical firms in the digital asset sector, published a technical report that immediately captured the attention of market participants. The firm’s analysis zeroes in on a key on-chain metric known as Supply in Loss — the proportion of the total Bitcoin supply that was acquired at prices higher than the current market value, and is therefore sitting in an unrealized loss position. According to K33’s findings, more than 50% of the total BTC supply is currently in such a loss position, a threshold that history shows has been consistently associated with the bottom phases of previous market cycles. The firm emphasizes that this level has only been breached during the darkest periods of prior bear cycles, most notably in December 2022 following the FTX collapse, and in November 2018 during the prolonged downturn that marked the end of that cycle’s bear phase.

However, K33’s report insists that this signal, while undeniably powerful, must be interpreted within its proper context. The firm points out that the composition of the supply currently sitting in loss has shifted meaningfully compared to previous cycles. It is no longer primarily retail investors absorbing the paper losses; instead, the losses are concentrated among institutional participants and miners who have been compelled to sell their Bitcoin holdings to cover rising operational costs. This change in the profile of loss-bearing holders suggests, according to K33, that the market is in the final stages of flushing out the last remaining weak hands — a phase that has historically preceded the end of bear markets and the beginning of new accumulation cycles.

“We are observing a silent capitulation among miners and large holders, which is often the precursor to a significant rebound,” the report states, noting that similar configurations in on-chain data preceded the substantial rallies of 2019 and 2023, both of which followed periods of intense bearish sentiment and widespread selling pressure.

Grayscale Confirms the Bottom Thesis, But with Nuances

On the institutional side, Grayscale — one of the world’s largest digital asset managers — has also weighed in on the ongoing debate about the cycle bottom. In a research note published this week, the investment firm concludes that both on-chain metrics and broader macroeconomic indicators are converging in a manner consistent with the formation of a solid floor for Bitcoin’s price. Grayscale draws particular attention to the recent stabilization of flows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. After a period characterized by persistent net outflows, ETF flows have moved into a more balanced state in recent days, a shift that the firm interprets as a sign that the selling pressure that had been weighing on the market is beginning to subside.

Nevertheless, Grayscale introduces an important caveat to its generally constructive outlook. The firm cautions that the recovery from this bottom could prove to be slower and more gradual than...