Bitcoin (BTC) is holding around $62,500 on July 8, 2026, but debate is raging over the central question gripping the market: is this a genuine durable bottom, or merely a bounce before another leg down? K33 Research points to a cycle bottom with over 50% of supply in loss, while Grayscale speaks of a “durable bottom.” Yet on Crypto Twitter, several prominent analysts refuse to endorse this reading and warn that a pullback toward $58,000 remains entirely possible.
This divergence of opinions perfectly illustrates the complexity of the current market, where macroeconomic signals, on-chain data, and investor sentiment struggle to converge toward a clear direction.
K33 Research: A Cycle Bottom Validated by Supply in Loss
In a note published this week, K33 Research argues that bitcoin may have reached a cycle bottom. The main argument rests on a key metric: more than 50% of the total circulating supply is currently in a position of unrealized loss. Historically, such a threshold has coincided with the low points of previous cycles, notably in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
K33’s approach is interesting because it does not rely on absolute price, but on holder behavior. When more than half of investors are in loss, the market typically reaches a capitulation point advanced enough that selling pressure exhausts itself naturally. Weak hands have already sold, leaving only the most convinced holders — those willing to keep their positions despite unrealized losses.
This indicator has proven itself in the past. In November 2022, after the FTX collapse, the percentage of supply in loss exceeded 55%, preceding the start of the 2023 bull rally. Similarly, in March 2020, during the COVID-19 crash, the figure approached 60% before the spectacular rebound toward $60,000.
Of course, each cycle has its particularities. Supply in loss can remain elevated longer if the macroeconomic backdrop deteriorates. But for K33, current conditions bring together several elements that argue in favor of a solid floor: a neutral funding rate, declining speculative trading volumes, and progressive accumulation by long-term addresses.
Grayscale: A “Durable Bottom” Taking Shape
For its part, Grayscale Investments has published an analysis that partly aligns with K33’s reading while adding an important nuance. The digital asset manager speaks of a “durable bottom,” a concept meaning not that bitcoin has necessarily touched its absolute price floor, but that the current price zone represents a base solid enough to support a structural recovery.
Grayscale notably relies on the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric, which compares market capitalization to realized value. Currently, the MVRV is oscillating around 1.1, a level historically associated with transition phases between bear markets and bull markets. When the MVRV falls below 1, the market is in a state of widespread loss. Above 3, it enters bubble territory. Between 1 and 1.5, as is the case today, the market sits in a neutral zone where long-term buying opportunities are statistically favorable.
The Grayscale report also highlights the reduction in realized volatility. Bitcoin is currently experiencing one of its calmest periods in terms of annualized volatility, reminiscent of the 2019 consolidation between rallies, as well as the end of the 2015 bear market. For Grayscale, this volatility compression is typical of durable bottom phases: the market no longer has enough energy to go lower, but not yet enough to decisively move higher.
This reading is consistent with the observation of the Bollinger Band on the weekly timeframe. The lower band is tightening, which has often preceded major trend reversals in the past.
Crypto Twitter Analysts Temper the Enthusiasm
But not all observers share this measured optimism. On Crypto Twitter, several well-known analysts are urging caution and consider the bottom scenario premature. Their main argument: bitcoin is still moving within a bearish channel defined by lower highs since the start of 2026. A true cycle bottom can only be confirmed, in their view, after a clean break above the $67,000–$68,000 resistance, followed by a successful retest.
These analysts also point to the lack of an immediate bullish catalyst. No favorable regulatory news, no major product launch, no significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are currently supporting a sustainable recovery. On the contrary, net outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have accelerated in recent weeks, suggesting that institutional investors remain on the sidelines.
Some analysts raise the possibility of a retest of $58,000 in the coming weeks. This level corresponds to an important technical support on the weekly chart, tested multiple times since May. A breakdown below this threshold could open the way toward $52,000, or even $48,000, which would completely invalidate the cycle bottom thesis.
The $58,000 level was not chosen at random by these analysts. It corresponds to the low point of the current descending channel projected over the coming weeks, as well as a confluence zone with the 200-period weekly exponential moving average. A rejection at this level would be bullish; a clean break, on the other hand, would signal a continuation of the downtrend.
The Macroeconomic Context: Keystone of the Scenario
Beyond the diverging opinions among analysts, it is likely the macroeconomic context that will determine what comes next. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, expected at the end of July, remains the most watched event by both crypto and traditional markets.
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