Bitcoin (BTC) is holding around $62,500 on July 8, 2026, but debate is raging over the central question gripping the market: is this a genuine durable bottom, or merely a bounce before another leg down? K33 Research points to a cycle bottom with over 50% of supply in loss, while Grayscale speaks of a “durable bottom.” Yet on Crypto Twitter, several prominent analysts refuse to endorse this reading and warn that a pullback toward $58,000 remains entirely possible.
This divergence of opinions perfectly illustrates the complexity of the current market, where macroeconomic signals, on-chain data, and investor sentiment struggle to converge toward a clear direction.
K33 Research: A Cycle Bottom Validated by Supply in Loss
In a note published this week, K33 Research argues that bitcoin may have reached a cycle bottom. The main argument rests on a key metric: more than 50% of the total circulating supply is currently in a position of unrealized loss. Historically, such a threshold has coincided with the low points of previous cycles, notably in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
K33’s approach is interesting because it does not rely on absolute price, but on holder behavior. When more than half of investors are in loss, the market typically reaches a capitulation point advanced enough that selling pressure exhausts itself naturally. Weak hands have already sold, leaving only the most convinced holders — those willing to keep their positions despite unrealized losses.
This indicator has proven itself in the past. In November 2022, after the FTX collapse, the percentage of supply in loss exceeded 55%, preceding the start of the 2023 bull rally. Similarly, in March 2020, during the COVID-19 crash, the figure approached 60% before the spectacular rebound toward $60,000.
Of course, each cycle has its particularities. Supply in loss can remain elevated longer if the macroeconomic backdrop deteriorates. But for K33, current conditions bring together several elements that argue in favor of a solid floor: a neutral funding rate, declining speculative trading volumes, and progressive accumulation by long-term addresses.
Grayscale: A “Durable Bottom” Taking Shape
For its part, Grayscale Investments has published an analysis that partly aligns with K33’s reading while adding an important nuance. The digital asset manager speaks of a “durable bottom,” a concept meaning not that bitcoin has necessarily touched its absolute price floor, but that the current price zone represents a base solid enough to support a structural recovery.
Grayscale notably relies on the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric, which compares market capitalization to realized value. Currently, the MVRV is oscillating around 1.1, a level historically associated with transition phases between bear markets and bull markets. When the MVRV falls below 1, the market is in a state of widespread loss. Above 3, it enters bubble territory. Between 1 and 1.5, as is the case today, the market sits in a neutral zone where long-term buying opportunities are statistically favorable.
The Grayscale report also highlights the reduction in realized volatility. Bitcoin is currently experiencing one of its calmest periods in terms of annualized volatility, reminiscent of the 2019 consolidation between rallies, as well as the end of the 2015 bear market. For Grayscale, this volatility compression is typical of durable bottom phases: the market no longer has enough energy to go lower, but not yet enough to decisively move higher.
This reading is consistent with the observation of the Bollinger Band on the weekly timeframe. The lower band is tightening, which has often preceded major trend reversals in the past.
Crypto Twitter Analysts Temper the Enthusiasm
But not all observers share this measured optimism. On Crypto Twitter, several well-known analysts are urging caution and consider the bottom scenario premature. Their main argument: bitcoin is still moving within a bearish channel defined by lower highs since the start of 2026. A true cycle bottom can only be confirmed, in their view, after a clean break above the $67,000–$68,000 resistance, followed by a successful retest.
These analysts also point to the lack of an immediate bullish catalyst. No favorable regulatory news, no major product launch, no significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are currently supporting a sustainable recovery. On the contrary, net outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have accelerated in recent weeks, suggesting that institutional investors remain on the sidelines.
Some analysts raise the possibility of a retest of $58,000 in the coming weeks. This level corresponds to an important technical support on the weekly chart, tested multiple times since May. A breakdown below this threshold could open the way toward $52,000, or even $48,000, which would completely invalidate the cycle bottom thesis.
The $58,000 level was not chosen at random by these analysts. It corresponds to the low point of the current descending channel projected over the coming weeks, as well as a confluence zone with the 200-period weekly exponential moving average. A rejection at this level would be bullish; a clean break, on the other hand, would signal a continuation of the downtrend.
The Macroeconomic Context: Keystone of the Scenario
Beyond the diverging opinions among analysts, it is likely the macroeconomic context that will determine what comes next. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, expected at the end of July, remains the most watched event by both crypto and traditional markets.
Recent U.S. employment data surprised with its resilience, which reduces the probability of a rate cut in July. A monetary status quo would maintain pressure on risky assets, including bitcoin, and limit short-term catalysts for a rally.
However, markets still anticipate a first rate cut in September, with a probability of around 65% according to the CME FedWatch tool. If this cut materializes, it could provide the favorable macro backdrop that bitcoin needs to break out of its consolidation.
In this scenario, K33 and Grayscale could be right on substance, but with too early a call. The cycle bottom would then come not in July, but in September or October 2026, just before a bull run fueled by monetary easing.
Ether (ETH), meanwhile, has shown relative outperformance versus bitcoin over the past seven days, with a gain of more than 11%. This catch-up is partly explained by expectations around spot Ethereum ETFs, whose launch in the United States continues to fuel anticipatory flows. If the cycle bottom is confirmed, ether could benefit from an even more pronounced catch-up, especially since its ETH/BTC ratio remains near historical lows.
Solana (SOL), on the other hand, is clearly underperforming with a decline of nearly 5% over 24 hours. SOL’s correction in a context of relative bitcoin stability suggests a sectoral rebalancing: investors are refocusing on large caps at the expense of more speculative altcoins.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
On the technical front, bitcoin is moving in a pivotal zone. The $60,000 support has been successfully tested multiple times in recent weeks, giving it solid technical credibility. A weekly close above $63,500 would be a first positive signal, opening the way toward the $65,000 resistance, then toward $67,000–$68,000.
The $58,000 zone, mentioned by bearish analysts, represents the next support should $60,000 break. Below that, the next notable level sits around $55,000, a level not tested since March.
To the upside, a clean breakout above $68,000 would erase the lower-highs structure and validate the cycle bottom scenario. Until then, the bias remains neutral, or even slightly bearish in the short term, which explains the caution of analysts who still refuse to validate the definitive floor thesis.
On-chain data adds an additional layer of analysis. The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which measures the profit ratio of spent coins, sits just below 1, indicating that spending is occurring at a loss on average. Historically, a SOPR below 1 over an extended period has often coincided with the most lucrative accumulation phases.
Similarly, the number of accumulator addresses — those that hold bitcoin without ever selling — continues to rise, reaching record levels. This behavior is typical of mature bear markets: the most savvy investors buy while the less experienced sell.
Conclusion: Bottom or Not, Uncertainty Remains King
The narrative battle between K33 and Grayscale on one side, and independent analysts on the other, neatly summarizes the state of the market in July 2026. On-chain data and valuation metrics objectively argue in favor of a price zone near a cycle bottom. But the absence of an immediate macroeconomic catalyst and the persistence of a bearish technical structure prevent a definitive validation.
For investors, the question is not so much whether the bottom is behind us — structural signals suggest it is — but rather how long the market will remain in this zone of uncertainty. History shows that the longest consolidation periods often precede the most violent rallies. But it also shows that each cycle has its own specificities and that past precedents never guarantee the future.
In the meantime, bitcoin is trading at $62,500, ether at $1,746, and the market holds its breath as it awaits the next catalyst — be it the Fed’s decision, a regulatory development, or simply the return of investor confidence.
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