Market Storm: Bond Yields at 2008 High, Bitcoin Below $65K

Par DCN Editorial Team
Publié le 24 July 2026

Analysis

Storm on the Markets: Bond Yields at Highest Since 2008, Bitcoin Falls Below $65,000

July 24, 2026, will be remembered as a turning point for global financial markets. As global bond yields have just hit their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, Bitcoin plunges below the $65,000 mark, dragging the entire crypto market down with it. Between oil surging past $100 a barrel, escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran after tanker strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, and growing fears of a new Federal Reserve tightening, the stage is set for a macroeconomic storm of rare intensity — and crypto, despite its narrative of maturity, is not immune.

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the situation, with data, a technical market reading, and four scenarios for the weeks ahead.

Bond Yields Explode: The Debt Market’s Brutal Awakening

This is the signal that ignited the fire this week. The Bloomberg Global Treasury Index, which tracks the performance of sovereign bonds from developed countries worldwide, has reached its highest yield level since the 2008 global financial crisis. This is not an isolated move: it is a complete realignment of the global bond market, with deep implications for all asset classes.

In the United States, the 10-year Treasury yield is now flirting with 4.7%, a one-year high. In Japan, the 30-year yield jumped to a level never seen in recent history. In Europe, German Bunds and French OATs are following the same upward trend. Technology companies, which had benefited from years of near-free credit to finance their growth, suddenly find themselves issuing hundreds of billions of dollars in debt at rates not seen since the great financial crisis.

This rise in yields is driven by three converging factors that are essential to understand to anticipate what comes next:

1. The U.S. labor market is overheating. Weekly jobless claims have fallen to their lowest level since 1969, a staggering figure that indicates an economy running at full capacity. In such a context, wage pressures increase, which mechanically fuels inflation and makes any monetary easing difficult.
2. Oil is soaring. Brent crude has crossed the symbolic $100 per barrel threshold, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Oil is a major input in nearly every sector of the economy — transportation, plastics, fertilizers, chemicals. A $100 barrel translates into imported inflation that spreads throughout the economy within 4 to 8 weeks.
3. Rate expectations are reversing brutally. While the market was still anticipating a Fed rate cut two weeks ago, the probability of a rate hike as early as July has gone from 0% to 33.7% in just a few days. This is a dramatic reversal that has caught many investors off guard.

“Government bonds are no longer a safe haven asset. They are becoming a barometer of fear — fear that inflation is not defeated and that central banks must continue to tighten, even at the risk of breaking growth.”

— Bond strategist cited by Bloomberg

Oil at $100: The Geopolitical Catalyst That Changes Everything

The immediate trigger for this storm is geopolitical. The tanker strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, which occurred this week, have raised tensions a decisive notch between the United States and Iran. Donald Trump has threatened Tehran with direct military retaliation, a verbal escalation that was enough to propel Brent above $100 for the first time since the beginning of the year.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategic maritime passages in the world: approximately 20% of the world’s oil transits through it every day. Any disruption, even minor, has an immediate effect on crude prices. And in the current climate, where oil inventories are already tight, the mere risk of escalation is enough to send prices soaring.

The impact on crypto markets is twofold, and it is important to understand both mechanisms:

1. The flight to safety effect. In times of acute geopolitical tension, investors rush to traditional safe haven assets — the U.S. dollar, gold, the safest government bonds — and massively abandon risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Contrary to the optimistic narrative of “Bitcoin as a digital safe haven,” the reality of the data shows that the BTC-equities correlation remains very strong in 2026, around 0.65 on a 30-day rolling basis. Bitcoin behaves more like a tech stock than digital gold.
2. The pure inflationary shock. Oil at $100 a barrel — and potentially higher if the conflict worsens — mechanically translates into higher prices at the pump, for freight transport, raw materials, and ultimately for overall inflation as measured by the CPI. This rise in inflation reduces the chances of a Fed rate cut and instead reinforces expectations of a status quo, or even a hike. Higher rates are structurally negative for risky assets: they increase the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin (which generates no yield) and strengthen the dollar, which weighs on all USD-denominated assets.

An analysis by CoinDesk published this July 24 highlights that institutional investors have reduced their net exposure to Bitcoin by nearly 12% in two weeks, preferring to reposition themselves on the U.S. dollar, which is enjoying its best week in a month against a basket of six major currencies (DXY). Flows into bond funds, meanwhile, have jumped 18% over the same period.

Bitcoin Under Pressure: Technical Analysis and On-Chain Data

Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,500 – $65,000, down about 20% from its highs for the year. Several technical signals and on-chain data deserve close attention to understand where we are in the cycle.

The Failure of the 200-Day Moving Average — A Major Bearish Technical Signal

For several weeks now, Bitcoin has been unable to hold above its 200-day moving average (200 DMA), a technical level watched by institutional and retail traders worldwide. The 200 DMA is considered the dividing line between a bull market and a long-term bear market. Every attempt at recovery has been systematically sold into in recent weeks, suggesting structural market weakness rather than a simple technical correction.

The latest test, on July 22, saw BTC briefly touch $67,000 before sinking back below $65,000 within hours. This type of behavior — a failed re-test of a key technical level — is generally considered bearish by chartist analysts. According to several converging sources, a daily close below $63,000 would open the way to the next support, located between $58,000 and $60,000, a level not tested in several months.

Institutional Flows Dry Up: A Concerning Signal

On-chain data and flows into Bitcoin ETPs (exchange-traded products) show a significant slowdown in capital inflows. After weeks of record inflows driven by enthusiasm around the CLARITY Act and regulatory optimism, net outflows have accelerated: more than $350 million were withdrawn from Bitcoin ETPs last week, according to data compiled by CoinShares.

This trend coincides with two parallel phenomena. On one hand, uncertainty around the CLARITY Act — whose chances of passage before the August parliamentary recess have fallen back to 30% according to Galaxy Research, after Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the text could not be voted on before the summer break. On the other hand, the rise in bond yields to 4.7% now offers a competitive alternative for institutional investors seeking yield — a risk-free return of 4.7% is hard to ignore when Bitcoin is in a 20% correction.

Option Expiration: $1.2 Billion at Stake

An aggravating factor comes from the massive Bitcoin options expiration scheduled for this Friday, July 25, with a total notional value of $1.2 billion. These expiries, which always occur on the last Friday of the month, create additional volatility and can amplify price movements, especially in a context of already reduced liquidity due to summer holidays. The concept of the “max pain point” — the price at which the greatest number of options expire worthless — is around $64,000, which could act as a magnet for the price in the very short term. Market makers have an interest in pushing the price toward this level to maximize their profits, creating additional technical pressure.

The Fed in a Bind: Neither Hike Nor Cut Is Comfortable

The current economic situation places the Federal Reserve in a particularly uncomfortable position, and the markets know it. The dilemma is classic but rarely as stark.

On one hand, inflationary pressures persist and are intensifying: oil at $100 will mechanically increase inflation in the coming months, the labor market is overheating (the unemployment rate is at a decades-low), and U.S. household consumption remains robust. All these signals argue for a monetary status quo, or even for further tightening if inflation were to pick up again.

On the other hand, further rate tightening carries considerable risks. The U.S. housing sector is already under pressure with mortgage rates above 7%. Overindebted companies — particularly in the technology sector — would start to default. And equity markets, which have not corrected significantly since 2022, could suffer a violent correction. A rate hike in July would likely precipitate a recession in 2027.

Federal funds futures markets now assess the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed’s late July meeting at 33.7%. This figure may seem modest, but it represents a tripling from last week, when rate cut expectations...