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⏱ 6 min de lecture

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Publié le 30 June 2026

📖 6 min de lecture

Prediction Markets Under Regulatory Pressure: Kalshi Blocked in Michigan, BitMart US Launches Regulated Offering

As 2025 unfolds, prediction markets—platforms that allow users to bet on the outcomes of political, economic, and sporting events—are experiencing explosive growth. According to a March 2025 report from Dune Analytics, the combined trading volume across the five leading platforms—Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus, PredictIt, and BitMart Predict—surpassed 2 billion in 2024, up from .5 billion in 2023. This meteoric rise has drawn the attention of U.S. regulators, who are caught between fostering financial innovation and protecting consumers.

Two recent events highlight this regulatory tug-of-war. On February 15, 2025, the Michigan Department of Insurance and Financial Services (MDIFS) issued a cease-and-desist order against Kalshi, a market leader, prohibiting it from offering services in the state. Simultaneously, on February 20, 2025, BitMart US announced the launch of “BitMart Predict,” a prediction market offering fully regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)—a first in the United States. These developments underscore the high stakes for an industry that has become a multi-billion-dollar phenomenon, with implications for traders, regulators, and the broader crypto ecosystem.

Kalshi Blocked in Michigan: A Troubling Precedent

Kalshi, founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, has established itself as the largest CFTC-regulated prediction platform, boasting over 2 million active users as of January 2025. The platform allows users to trade on the outcomes of events ranging from election results to economic indicators, all under the oversight of federal regulators. However, the Michigan block, effective February 15, 2025, represents a significant setback. The MDIFS argues that Kalshi offers gambling contracts not authorized under state law, specifically targeting contracts related to political events and other event-based wagers that fall outside Michigan legal framework for gambling.

The impact is immediate and severe for Kalshi. Data shows that Michigan users accounted for approximately 5% of its total trading volume, which reached 50 million in election-related contracts alone during the 2024 cycle. The block could set a precedent for other states to follow suit, creating a patchwork of regulations that complicates Kalshi operations nationwide.

Kalshi has swiftly contested the decision. CEO Tarek Mansour argued, “Kalshi operates under federal oversight from the CFTC, and we believe state-level blocks like this undermine the consistency of federal law.” Legal experts note that the tension between state gambling laws and federal commodities regulation could ultimately reach the Supreme Court.

BitMart US Launches a Regulated Offering: A New Model

In stark contrast to Kalshi troubles, BitMart US unveiled “BitMart Predict” on February 20, 2025, positioning it as a fully compliant prediction market under CFTC regulation. This offering is a landmark development, as it is the first time a U.S.-based platform has integrated prediction markets with a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license. BitMart Predict includes strict position limits, transparent reporting, and a 0 million guarantee fund to protect users against defaults.

The 0 million guarantee fund, funded by BitMart corporate reserves, is designed to cover losses in the event of contract disputes or platform insolvency—a feature that sets it apart from competitors. “We are setting a new standard for the industry,” said BitMart US CEO Michael Chen. Within the first week of launch, BitMart Predict recorded over 0 million in trading volume, with contracts on the 2026 midterm elections and upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions leading activity.

The CFTC/SEC Regulatory Framework: A Tale of Two Agencies

The regulatory landscape is shaped by the divergent approaches of the CFTC and the SEC. The CFTC has adopted a pragmatic stance, approving over 100 new event contracts in 2024. The SEC, led by Chair Gary Gensler, maintains a harder line. In March 2025, the SEC escalated its scrutiny of prediction markets, opening a formal investigation into Polymarket on March 10, 2025. The investigation focuses on whether Polymarket contracts violate securities laws by offering unregistered investment contracts.

The SEC move has sent shockwaves through the industry. Polymarket native token dropped 15% on the news, and trading volumes fell from 20 million per day in late February to 5 million by mid-March. The jurisdictional dispute between CFTC and SEC remains unresolved.