🔍 Executive Summary
On June 10, 2026, the theme of the day is deleveraging. Bitcoin (BTC) is retreating to $62,300, down 1.2%, while Ethereum (ETH) slips to $1,640. The liquidity wall continues to weigh on risky assets.
🌍 Liquidity Wall: The Treasury Continues to Borrow
The U.S. Treasury has announced a new issuance of $42 billion in 3-year and 10-year notes. Yields reacted immediately: the 10-year rose to 4.90%, the 2-year to 4.65%. The DXY strengthened to 105.6.
The FOMC minutes, to be released tomorrow, are now the only hope for a change in tone. The market anticipates a still hawkish tone but hopes for nuances.
📊 On-Chain Analysis: The Purge of Positions
Open Interest on the BTC futures market has fallen another 3.8%, dropping below $24 billion. This is the lowest level since April. This purge of leveraged positions is healthy in the long term: it cleanses excess speculation.
The funding rate has been negative for 5 days (-0.008%). Shorts dominate, which creates a potential “short squeeze” if the market rebounds.
🎯 Conclusion
Deleveraging continues. Leveraged positions are being purged, creating the conditions for a healthier rebound in the medium term. But in the short term, the liquidity wall and pre-FOMC wait-and-see attitude weigh heavily.
🌍 In-Depth Macroeconomics: The Disinflation Debate
The Components of Inflation
To understand where U.S. inflation is headed, we must analyze its components. The May CPI (3.6%) breaks down as follows: (1) Housing: +5.2% year-over-year, gradually declining from the peak of 8.2% in 2023. Owners’ equivalent rent (OER) is slowing but remains high. (2) Energy: +8.4% year-over-year, driven by oil (Brent at $89). (3) Food: +2.8%, stable. (4) Services excluding housing: +4.1%, accelerating — this is the main point of concern for the Fed.
The core PCE (the Fed’s preferred gauge) follows a similar trajectory at 3.2%. The gap between CPI and core PCE (0.4 points) is normal and explained by methodological differences.
The Impact of the Iran-USA Agreement on Inflation
The peace agreement signed on June 17 between Iran and the United States could have a significant impact on inflation outlooks. The lifting of Iranian oil sanctions could add 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day to the global oil market, which would lower the Brent price by 10 to 15%. A $10 drop in oil reduces U.S. inflation by about 0.3 percentage points. Combined with falling rents, this could bring inflation below 3% by September.
The Fed Calendar: Scenarios for the Rest of 2026
Depending on incoming data, several scenarios are possible for the remainder of 2026:
- Scenario A (45%): Prolonged Pause. The Fed keeps rates at 5.50% until December. No hikes or cuts. This scenario is neutral for crypto in the medium term.
- Scenario B (30%): Cut in September. If inflation falls back below 3% and the labor market softens, the Fed could cut rates by 25 basis points in September. Very positive for crypto.
- Scenario C (15%): Status Quo with Hawkish Bias. The Fed maintains rates but signals that a hike is possible if inflation rebounds. Negative for crypto.
- Scenario D (10%): Hike in July. The worst scenario for crypto. Likely only if the June CPI exceeds 4%.
Our base case is Scenario A with an increasing probability of Scenario B post Iran-USA agreement.
📈 In-Depth Technical Analysis: Multi-Timeframe Framework
Monthly Analysis
On the monthly timeframe, BTC shows a potential “higher low” configuration. The June 2026 low sits above the January 2026 low (~$58,000) and well above the August 2024 low (~$54,200). The long-term uptrend remains intact as long as BTC does not break below $54,000.
Weekly Analysis
The weekly candle of June 8-14 is a “hammer” with a long lower wick, a bullish reversal signal. The weekly RSI is at 43, in neutral-bearish territory. The weekly MACD is still negative but shows signs of convergence. Volume is down 38% compared to the crash week, which is normal for a recovery phase.
Elliott Wave Analysis
Within the framework of Elliott Wave analysis, the May-June 2026 correction could represent wave 2 of a larger bullish cycle that began in January 2026 (wave 1: from $54,000 to $77,200). If this count is correct, wave 3 — the most powerful and longest — would be imminent and could propel BTC towards $85,000 – $100,000 by the end of the year. This bullish scenario would be invalidated if BTC falls back below $54,000.
💼 Derivatives Market Analysis: What the Pros Are Saying
Open Interest and its Evolution
Total Open Interest (OI) on the crypto futures market has fallen from $38 billion (May peak) to $24 billion (June 10 low), a contraction of 37%. This massive purge of leveraged positions is a necessary step to clean up the market and prepare for the next bullish phase.
The Put/Call Ratio and Skew
The put/call ratio on Deribit for 1-month BTC options is 0.72, indicating moderate demand for bearish protection. The 25-delta skew is at -12%, still negative but improving from -22% on June 6. Professional traders continue to pay a premium for puts, but this premium is decreasing.
Key Liquidation Levels
Coinglass data shows the densest liquidation levels for the coming days:
- BTC: Long liquidations concentrated at $61,000 ($420M) and $58,000 ($380M)
- BTC: Short liquidations concentrated at $67,000 ($290M) and $70,000 ($350M)
- ETH: Long liquidations at $1,550 ($180M), short at $1,850 ($140M)
This data is crucial because market makers tend to “hunt” liquidations — that is, push the price towards levels where the largest liquidation pools are located. A move towards $61,000 could trigger a cascade of long liquidations, while a move towards $67,000 would trigger short liquidations.
📊 In-Depth On-Chain Analysis: Advanced Indicators
Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) and Coin Age
Coin Days Destroyed is an indicator that weights transaction volume by the time coins have remained dormant. A high CDD — like the one observed recently — indicates that long-term holders (LTHs) have started moving their assets, potentially to realize losses or profits. Currently, the annualized CDD stands at 18.2 million, a moderate level.
Analyzing the Binary CDD (a binary version that distinguishes high and low days), we observe that the number of days with high CDD has decreased by 30% compared to the annual average. This suggests that LTHs are not panicking and remain confident in the long-term trajectory. Historically, this behavior precedes accumulation phases.
The Deviated Stock-to-Flow Ratio
The S2F model, although controversial, remains a reference framework for Bitcoin valuation. The gap between the market price and the S2F price (estimated at $98,000 in June 2026) has widened to -35%. Phases where this gap exceeds -40% have historically offered the best annualized returns over 12 months.
Analysis of UTXOs in Loss
The percentage of UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs) in loss jumped to 42% during the June 6 low. This is a high level but not extreme: during the November 2022 low, 58% of UTXOs were in loss. The difference is explained by the fact that a large portion of BTC was acquired at prices below $30,000 (2020-2024 cycles). The “average cost floor” of current holders is around $42,300 (realized price), offering a safety cushion of 50%.
🔬 Altcoin Analysis and Market Structure
The Sector Rotation Phenomenon
The June 2026 correction triggered a sector rotation within the crypto market. Capital fled the riskiest sectors (memecoins, gaming, experimental DeFi) towards more established sectors (major Layer 1s, RWA, AI). This rotation is typical of market transition phases.
Detailed Sector Analysis
Layer 1 (L1): Solana (SOL) lost only 18% from its peak, significantly outperforming Ethereum (-25%). Solana’s on-chain activity remains robust with 1.2 million daily active addresses and 45,000 TPS. Sui (SUI) lost 15%, boosted by the announcement of a partnership with a major Asian gaming platform. Aptos (APT) lost 22%.
DeFi: Total DeFi TVL fell to $62 billion (-28% from the May peak). Uniswap (UNI) lost 24%, Aave (AAVE) 21%, Maker (MKR) 18%. Lending protocols saw their borrowing rates climb to 8-12% on USDC, creating a favorable environment for liquidity providers.
AI & Crypto: The decentralized AI sector held up the best. Bittensor (TAO) lost only 8%, Render (RNDR) 11%, Fetch.ai (FET) 13%. The announcement of the io.net-Bittensor partnership supported the sector.
Real World Assets (RWA): Ondo Finance (ONDO) lost only 6%, now tokenizing $1.2 billion in real-world assets. This is the most resilient sector of the correction.
Correlation Analysis Between Altcoins
The average correlation between BTC and large-cap altcoins (top 20) is 0.82 during stress periods, compared to 0.64 during calm periods. This means altcoins offer little diversification during bearish phases — they all fall together. The only effective diversification during a crash is holding stablecoins.
Related Articles
- Fear and Greed Index at 7/100: The Crypto Market in a State of “Extreme Fear”
- Bitcoin at 66K: Extreme Fear Recedes — 3 Reasons to Believe in the Rebound
In-Depth Analysis
- CLARITY Act: The Historic Bill That Could Change Everything for Crypto in the United States
- CLARITY Act: The Historic Crypto Regulation Bill Heading to the Senate
Historical Context
- Prediction Markets Under Regulatory Pressure: Kalshi Blocked in Michigan, BitMart US Launches Regulated Offer
- Franklin Templeton Files for ETFs Converting Stock Dividends into Bitcoin
Similar Opportunities
- Bitcoin Below 60000: Dollar-Yen Correlation and Macro Pressure
- Bitcoin Below 60,000 Dollars: The Dollar-Yen Correlation at -0.90
Opinion and analysis — not investment advice. The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell digital assets. Cryptocurrency trading involves high risks, including the total loss of invested capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research (DYOR) and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
📊 Network Metrics and Adoption Analysis
Number of Active Addresses
The number of active BTC addresses (sending or receiving transactions) is a fundamental indicator of the network’s actual usage. In June 2026, daily active addresses hover around 850,000, down 12% from the March peak (970,000) but up 18% year-over-year. This long-term upward trend in network activity is a fundamentally positive signal for BTC.
For Ethereum, daily active addresses are around 480,000, stable over the year. However, Layer 2 activity (Arbitrum: 280,000, Base: 210,000, Optimism: 150,000) largely compensates for the L1 stagnation, with a combined total exceeding one million daily active addresses.
Transaction Fees
Transaction fees on Bitcoin have fallen to an average of $1.5, their lowest level since January. This drop in fees — which typically accompanies phases of low volatility — makes the network more accessible for daily value transfers. On Ethereum, L1 fees have fallen to $3.8, while L2s offer transactions for under $0.10.
Hashrate
Bitcoin’s hashrate has slightly decreased, from 680 EH/s (May peak) to 620 EH/s, a drop of 8.8%. This decrease is consistent with the miner capitulation observed in the Hash Ribbons. However, the hashrate remains 35% higher than a year ago, and mining difficulty will adjust downwards in 7 days (estimated adjustment: -5%), which will improve profitability for remaining miners and halt the capitulation.
💡 Portfolio Strategy for June 2026
Recommended Allocation
In the current market context — extreme fear, leverage purge, uncertain macro backdrop but a potentially disinflationary Iran-USA agreement — here is a portfolio allocation suitable for investors with a 12-24 month horizon:
- BTC: 40-50% — The core asset. Its high dominance (58%) and status as a store of value make it the best risk/reward ratio.
- ETH: 10-15% — Underweighted due to the bearish ETH/BTC ratio. But has catch-up potential if the ratio rebounds.
- SOL: 10-15% — The best-performing L1 technically and in terms of adoption. Outperforms ETH.
- LINK, TAO, ONDO: 5-10% — Exposure to promising sectors (oracles, AI, RWA).
- Stablecoins (USDT/USDC): 20-30% — Strategic reserve to buy on further dips or opportunities.
The Trap
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