The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has issued a stark warning: many prediction market contracts could already face an outright ban for retail investors in the European Union. This information, reported by CoinTelegraph, comes as the sector experiences explosive growth.
Specifically, ESMA considers that certain contracts offered by decentralized betting platforms — whether Polymarket, BitMart, or other players — could be classified as financial instruments under the MiFID II directive. Such a classification would subject them to much stricter rules, or even an outright ban for the general public.
This warning comes in a context where the United States is adopting a diametrically opposite approach. BitMart US recently launched one of the first regulated prediction market offerings, while Polymarket continues to dominate American political betting despite a geoblock that users readily circumvent.
For European players in the sector, this is a new regulatory challenge following the entry into force of the MiCA framework, whose implementation is already debated. Binance, for example, argues that MiCA should be judged on the licenses it grants, not on the players it excludes.
In early July 2026, Bitcoin was oscillating around $62,800 and ETH was trading around $1,760. The total crypto market capitalization was approaching $2.28 trillion.
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