Bitcoin Bear Market Late Stages: Worst Behind Us, Says Coutts

Par La Rédaction
Publié le 12 July 2026

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A Call That Breaks with the Consensus

As Bitcoin trades around $63,800 after a July that saw it climb nearly 10%, a well-known analyst has shattered the bearish consensus that dominated markets for weeks. Jamie Coutts, an analyst at Real Vision – the media outlet founded by Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs executive – stated that Bitcoin is in the “late stages of bear market.” This declaration carries particular weight in a context where the Fear & Greed Index remains stuck at 26, in Extreme Fear territory, and where many retail investors struggle to believe in an imminent recovery.

Coutts’ analysis is not merely an optimistic prognosis. It is based on a reading of Bitcoin’s historical cycles, where each major bear market – 2014, 2018, 2022 – experienced a terminal phase characterized by a gradual miner capitulation, exhaustion of sellers, and a slow but structural recovery of investment flows. According to him, the current signals – notably the price stabilization above $60,000 despite repeated macroeconomic shocks – suggest that Bitcoin is following the same trajectory and that the worst of the unwinding is now behind us.

BTC at $64,000 But Extreme Fear Sentiment: July’s Paradox

The paradox is striking. Bitcoin posted a +10% performance since the start of July and holds firmly above $63,000, a level that, in absolute terms, places it among the best-performing assets of the year. Yet market sentiment – measured by the Fear & Greed Index – remains deeply entrenched in Extreme Fear territory, oscillating between 22 and 26 for over ten days.

This divergence between price and sentiment is not new in Bitcoin’s history. It has preceded the most spectacular recoveries: in 2019, the bear market of 2018-2019 saw weeks of Extreme Fear before BTC tripled in a few months. In 2023, after the FTX collapse, the Fear & Greed Index stayed below 30 for weeks before Bitcoin rose from $16,000 to $44,000. This pattern, well known to seasoned investors – called capitulation washing – sees weak hands cede their positions to long-term accumulators over several weeks or months.

However, it would be simplistic to reduce Coutts’ call to a mere “all is well, buy the fear.” The current macroeconomic context differs radically from previous cycles. Persistent inflation – fueled by AI-related spending and geopolitical tensions – prevents the Federal Reserve from cutting rates, keeping pressure on all risk assets. Unlike 2023, when the Fed’s pivot catalyzed a 150% rally, no immediate monetary easing is on the horizon.

An Institutional Analyst Swimming Against Catastrophic Forecasts

Jamie Coutts’ intervention is all the more remarkable given the media landscape dominated by pessimistic predictions. Several technical analysts have raised the possibility of a test of the $58,000 support level in case of renewed geopolitical escalation or a macroeconomic shock. Some go so far as to compare the current configuration to that of late 2022, when Bitcoin plunged to $15,500 after the FTX bankruptcy.

But Coutts rejects this comparison as too alarmist. While the parallel with 2022 is tempting – both years saw Bitcoin lose over 30% from their respective highs – the fundamental situation is radically different. In 2022, the crypto market suffered a systemic crisis of confidence after the collapse of Terra, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX. Volumes were at rock bottom, institutional funds were fleeing the sector, and U.S. regulation (via Operation Choke Point 2.0) was suffocating the crypto banking ecosystem. Today, spot Bitcoin ETFs are showing the first signs of exhaustion of their $2.7 billion in net outflows, and flows could reverse as early as next week.

The Real Vision analyst also emphasizes that the Bitcoin network has never been structurally stronger. The hashrate – the computing power dedicated to mining – remains near all-time highs, a sign that miners are not capitulating en masse despite margin compression after the halving. Active addresses, although down from the 2021 peaks, show a resilient user base not observed during previous bear markets at this stage of the cycle.

Conflicting Signals: Empery Sells, Whales Accumulate

While Coutts’ analysis is optimistic in the medium term, several recent signals cast a shadow over the short term. The most striking is the sale of nearly half of their Bitcoin holdings by Empery Digital, an investment fund specializing in digital assets. This decision, reported by several media outlets, sends a bearish signal on corporate treasuries: if even crypto-native funds reduce their exposure, it indicates that short-term prospects are not deemed favorable.

On the flip side, data from CryptoQuant reveals that the Coinbase Premium – the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges, an indicator of U.S. institutional demand – crossed a key level when Bitcoin reclaimed $64,000. This move suggests that whales and institutional investors took advantage of the price weakness to accumulate, a classic pattern of distribution between weak hands (retail) and strong hands (institutions). This divergence in behavior is typical of market transition phases: savvy investors accumulate while laggards sell out of fear.

Another notable element: Empery Digital did not liquidate all of its positions. It retains about half of its Bitcoin exposure, which could indicate a long-term bullish conviction despite a desire to take profits or reduce short-term risk. In this type of configuration, the caution of professional managers is not necessarily a signal of imminent catastrophe, but rather standard risk management in an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

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