Market Now Puts 68% Probability on Fed Rate Hike in July
Bitcoin is trading under pressure this Tuesday, testing the $62,600 zone as financial markets digest a major shift in tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Just days before the highly anticipated U.S. inflation report, bets on a July rate hike have soared, fueled by comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who explicitly raised the possibility of short-term monetary tightening.
This hawkish signal, delivered against a backdrop of persistent U.S. economic resilience, sent shockwaves across asset classes. U.S. government bond yields jumped, stock indices retreated, and Bitcoin — often viewed as an asset sensitive to liquidity conditions — slipped below the psychological $63,000 threshold to reach $62,657 at the time of writing, a modest 0.15% decline over 24 hours.
Waller’s Reversal: An Unexpected Tightening Signal
Christopher Waller, known as one of the most influential members of the Fed Board of Governors, surprised markets by indicating that a rate hike could come “sooner than expected” if upcoming inflation data confirms persistent price pressures. His remarks, reported by several financial media outlets, mark a sharp break from the more conciliatory tone the Fed had adopted at its previous meetings.
Until recently, the market consensus had been for monetary policy to remain on hold in the second half of 2026, or even for a first rate cut. Governor Waller’s comments abruptly upended that scenario, reviving fears of a prolonged tightening cycle that weighs on the valuation of all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Analysts point out that the timing of this intervention is particularly significant. It comes as U.S. inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), shows unexpected stickiness in several key sectors, notably services and housing. The inflation report, due in the coming days, will be the decisive test for confirming or refuting Waller’s hawkish stance.
Inflation: The Keystone of the Fed’s Next Move
The inflation report represents the most important macroeconomic event of the week for financial markets. An upside surprise in prices would bolster Waller’s position and amplify bets on a July tightening. Conversely, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in inflation could ease tensions and allow Bitcoin to regain upward momentum.
Economists surveyed by major news agencies expect headline inflation to remain stable, but core inflation — which excludes volatile items like food and energy — to continue showing signs of stickiness. This persistence of core inflation is precisely the factor the Fed watches most closely for guiding monetary policy.
The fed funds futures market reflects this growing nervousness. The implied probability of a July rate hike rose from 45% the previous week to 68% after Waller’s statements, a dramatic jump that underscores the impact of the governor’s comments on market expectations.
Bitcoin Faces Tighter Monetary Conditions
For Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market, the prospect of U.S. monetary tightening represents a significant challenge. Historically, periods of rate hikes have led to reduced market liquidity, which tends to weigh on speculative assets, including crypto assets.
However, several analysts believe the impact may be more muted than in previous cycles. The structure of the crypto market has evolved considerably since the last tightening cycle: institutional adoption has accelerated with the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional stock indices, while still present, appears to be gradually weakening.
Bitcoin is currently testing an important technical level around $62,500, a support zone that has been tested several times in recent weeks. A break below this level could open the way toward $60,000, while holding above it would consolidate a solid base for a rebound once macroeconomic uncertainty clears.
Broader Market Under Pressure
Beyond Bitcoin, all U.S. financial markets reacted negatively to the Fed’s hawkish signals. Wall Street’s main stock indices declined, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling between 0.5% and 1%. Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to their highest levels in several weeks,...
Analyse détaillée réservée aux membres
Notre équipe d'analystes a préparé une analyse complète avec données exclusives.
🔒 Paiement sécurisé • Stripe • Sans engagement
Déjà abonné ? Connectez-vous
