Bitwise Asset Management, one of the world’s largest crypto asset managers, analyzes the recent drop in Strategy’s stock (formerly MicroStrategy) and concludes that it could be a sign of a cycle bottom rather than a fundamental weakness of the company. A perspective that contrasts with JPMorgan’s warning about the “bilateral risk” of the new bitcoin selling policy.
Bitwise: late capitulation as a bottom signal
For Bitwise, the drop in Strategy’s stock in a context where Bitcoin remains above $61,000 is a classic signal of the end of a bearish cycle. The phenomenon is well-known: when assets considered the strongest in the sector (Strategy holds over 400,000 BTC) are sold by investors, it is often a sign of late capitulation — the last sellers give in before the turnaround.
Michael Saylor’s stock, recently rebranded as Strategy with the STRC dividend, has experienced significant selling pressure following the announcement of its new share buyback program and bitcoin monetization. But Bitwise believes this volatility is temporary and does not undermine the fundamental investment thesis.
JPMorgan sees bilateral risk
On the other side of the spectrum, JPMorgan — the largest US bank — publishes a more cautious analysis. The institution notes that Strategy’s Bitcoin selling policy (financing share buybacks) introduces a “bilateral risk”: buybacks support the stock price, but BTC sales add potential selling pressure on the Bitcoin market.
These two readings are not contradictory. Bitwise analyzes the market signal (capitulation = opportunity) while JPMorgan analyzes the operational risk (BTC sales = pressure). One is an investment thesis, the other a structural warning.
The evolving corporate Bitcoin model
Strategy is not the only player evolving its model. Metaplanet, the “Japanese MicroStrategy,” crossed the 43,000 bitcoin mark this week after a massive purchase of an additional 2,823 BTC. Meanwhile, American Bitcoin — Donald Trump’s company — drops 8.4% ahead of a reverse stock split to remain listed, illustrating that the Bitcoin treasury model is not a guarantee of success.
The narrative is shifting from the United States to Asia, with Metaplanet becoming the largest corporate Bitcoin holder outside the US. The Bitcoin treasury model is entering a phase of maturation and geographic diversification.
DailyCryptoNews provides information, analysis, and educational content. No published content constitutes investment advice, financial recommendation, or an incentive to buy or sell an asset.
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