Bitcoin at a Crossroads.

Par La Rédaction
Publié le 6 July 2026

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin is going through a pivotal moment in its current cycle. As the price oscillates between $60,400 and $63,900 without a clear direction, two major technical signals are clashing and dividing analysts. On one side, Bollinger Bands creator John Bollinger has flagged a W-shaped reversal pattern that could signal the end of the bear market. On the other, Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has just fallen to its lowest level since 2022, and the profit/loss ratio has dropped to a 43-month low. These contradictory indicators create a unique tension on the market.

The Bollinger Signal: A Bullish W Reversal

John Bollinger, creator of one of the most widely used technical indicators in the world, recently drew the attention of the crypto community by identifying a W-shaped pattern on Bitcoin’s chart. This formation, characterized by a double bottom followed by a breakout above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, is historically associated with major trend reversals. According to Bollinger himself, this pattern suggests that selling pressure is exhausting and that a bullish move could materialize in the coming weeks.

This signal comes after several weeks of consolidation around $60,000, a level that has served as support on multiple occasions. The Bollinger Bands, which measure market volatility, have tightened in recent days, which often precedes significant directional moves. The central question is whether this tightening will lead to a bullish or bearish breakout.

Sharpe Ratio at Lowest: An Alarm Signal

Alongside Bollinger’s bullish signal, Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio — a measure of risk-adjusted return — has reached its lowest level since 2022. The Sharpe ratio compares an asset’s return to its risk (volatility). A declining Sharpe ratio indicates that the return generated does not adequately compensate investors for the risk taken. At its lowest in three years, this ratio suggests that holding Bitcoin has been a disappointing operation in terms of risk-adjusted return over the recent period.

This weakness in the Sharpe ratio is corroborated by the drop in Bitcoin’s profit/loss (P/L) ratio, which has hit its lowest level in 43 months. This means that the majority of short-term holders are currently at a loss, a situation that generates potential selling pressure if these holders decide to cut their positions. According to Glassnode on-chain data, the percentage of addresses at a loss has increased significantly over the past two weeks.

Fear & Greed Index at 24: A Persistent Extreme

The Fear & Greed (F&G) Index, which measures market sentiment, has remained stuck at 24 — “Extreme Fear” — for seven consecutive days. This persistence of extreme fear is a rare phenomenon. Historically, prolonged episodes of Extreme Fear have often preceded significant market reversals. In July 2021, for example, the F&G remained below 25 for 10 days before Bitcoin began a rally from $30,000 to $69,000.

However, the current macroeconomic context is different. Interest rates remain high, global liquidity is tightening, and traditional markets are showing signs of weakness. The persistence of Extreme Fear could therefore reflect not a historic buying opportunity, but a structural distrust of investors toward risky assets.

Bitcoin ETF Behavior: A Contradictory Signal

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States continue to show mixed flows. After a period of net outflows in May and early June, inflows have gradually returned over the past two weeks. On July 3, 2026, Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $143 million, the highest figure in three weeks. However, these inflows remain below the levels seen in the first quarter of 2026.

The behavior of institutional investors via ETFs offers an interesting contrast with the retail sentiment measured by the F&G. While retail investors are in fear, institutions appear to be cautiously accumulating. This pattern — institutional accumulation during retail fear — has historically been a precursor to bullish moves.

Bitcoin Supply in Circulation: An On-Chain Buy Signal

A new on-chain indicator caught analysts’ attention this week: the Bitcoin supply metric has issued its first buy signal since late 2022. This indicator, which measures the proportion of Bitcoin held short-term relative to the total supply, suggests that long-term holders are accumulating again. When this signal triggered in late 2022, Bitcoin was at $16,000 and subsequently began a rally toward $44,000.

This on-chain buy signal partially contradicts the bearish signal from the Sharpe ratio. It suggests that, despite recent disappointing returns, the most informed market participants — long-term holders — consider current price levels attractive. This divergence between short-term technical indicators (Sharpe, P/L) and long-term on-chain indicators (supply, accumulation) is at the heart of the...