Bitwise Asset Management, one of the largest crypto asset managers globally, has analyzed the recent drop in Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) stock and concluded it may signal a cycle bottom rather than fundamental weakness. According to their report, the 40% decline in Strategy shares since their March 2026 peak has created a historic divergence with Bitcoin’s price.
The Bitwise report highlights a striking parallel with the 2022 cycle: back then, MicroStrategy stock had plunged 75% before Bitcoin embarked on a 150% rally in 2023. Bitwise notes that the BTC/MSTR ratio is now at its lowest level since 2020, suggesting the stock is underperforming Bitcoin more than ever before.
Strategy currently holds 499,096 BTC, acquired at an average price of $47,000. The total value of these holdings exceeds $30 billion at Bitcoin’s current price of $61,000. Strategy’s market capitalization, however, has fallen to $18 billion, creating an unprecedented 40% discount relative to its Bitcoin holdings.
“This discount is a market anomaly that cannot persist,” Bitwise writes in its analysis. “Either the market is massively undervaluing Strategy’s assets, or it is anticipating a forced liquidation. We lean toward the former hypothesis.” The analysis suggests that Strategy’s announced share buyback program could be the catalyst that closes this discount.
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