The TD Sequential indicator (Tom DeMark) has triggered its first bullish reversal signal since July 2022 on the Bitcoin chart, reigniting hopes of a bear market end after three consecutive months of decline. The technical event, reported by CoinTelegraph as a signal that the bear market is “dead,” comes as Bitcoin oscillates around the psychological threshold of $60,000.
The TD9: A Historic Signal
The TD Sequential indicator, developed by legendary trader Tom DeMark, works by counting 9 consecutive candles in the same direction (bullish or bearish) before signaling trend exhaustion and a probable reversal. The last bullish signal of this type dates back to July 2022, when Bitcoin was around $20,000 — just before the rally that took the cryptocurrency to $69,000 in 2024.
The fact that the TD9 is triggering today, after Bitcoin touched a 21-month low of $57,000 on July 1 before rebounding above $60,000, is a powerful technical signal that warrants attention. According to CoinTelegraph, this signal suggests that “the bear market could be coming to an end” — a diagnosis shared by Cantor Fitzgerald, which believes the bear market “is entering its final phase.”
Cantor Fitzgerald Validates the Thesis
Investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald has made headlines on CoinDesk twice with its analysis that the Bitcoin bear market “could be entering its final phase.” A statement made all the more notable given that Cantor is traditionally considered a cautious institutional player.
This macro analysis aligns with the TD9 technical signal to form an interesting convergence: technicals and fundamentals are pointing in the same direction. The question now is whether this convergence is sufficient to sustainably reverse the trend.
The Favorable Macro Context
The immediate catalyst for this rebound is the shift in tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Chris Warsh indicated that inflation risks “have diminished,” paving the way for a monetary policy pivot that could favor risk assets like Bitcoin.
The return above $60,000, combined with the TD9 signal and Cantor’s analysis, creates a technical and macro configuration rarely observed over the past twelve months. Market sentiment, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, is also beginning to improve: after hitting a cycle low of 11/100 (extreme fear), the index has rebounded to 19 — its highest level in three days.
Points of Caution
Several analysts urge caution. Leverage volume in the market remains elevated, and some observers believe this rebound could be nothing more than a “bear market rally” before a further leg down. The Fear & Greed Index’s persistence in extreme fear territory (7th consecutive day below 25/100) reflects a retail sentiment still anchored in pessimism.
The key will be Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $60,000...
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