Bitcoin Nears Power Law Line Fidelity Has Tracked Since 2015

Par DCN Editorial Team
Publié le 14 July 2026

Analysis

Bitcoin Approaches Power Law Support Line Tracked by Fidelity Since 2015

Bitcoin is edging closer to a technical level rarely discussed in mainstream media but closely monitored by institutions: the Power Law support line that Fidelity has been tracking since 2015. According to analysts, this mathematical approximation of Bitcoin’s long-term price floor could be one of the most robust bullish signals for institutional investors, especially as BTC currently trades around $62,700, not far from this historical support zone that has consistently served as a bottom during bear markets.

The Power Law theory in the context of Bitcoin was popularized by researchers such as Giovanni Santostasi and Harold Christopher Burger. It posits that Bitcoin’s price follows a power-law relationship with time, a mathematical property observed in many natural and social phenomena, from the growth of biological organisms to income distribution in societies. Applied to Bitcoin, this law suggests that BTC’s price floor rises predictably over the years, following a logarithmic trajectory that has held with remarkable regularity since the asset’s creation.

What Bitcoin’s Power Law Actually Is

Concretely, the Power Law establishes a mathematical relationship between Bitcoin’s price and the time elapsed since its creation in 2009. Historical data shows that BTC’s price has consistently bounced off this support line during bear markets, whether in 2015 ($200), in 2018‑2019 ($3,000), or in 2022 ($15,000). The fact that this relationship has held for over a decade, despite cycles of extreme volatility, exchange scandals, shifting regulations, and macroeconomic crises, makes it one of the most reliable predictive models for Bitcoin’s long-term price.

What makes this analysis particularly relevant today is that Fidelity — one of the world’s largest asset managers with over $4.5 trillion in assets under management — has officially tracked this indicator for nearly ten years. Fidelity’s digital assets research team has incorporated the Power Law into its Bitcoin valuation models, confirming that the world’s largest financial institutions take this signal seriously in their asset allocation and portfolio management decisions.

Fidelity’s approach is not incidental. As a custodian for US spot Bitcoin ETFs and a provider of institutional custody services since 2018, Fidelity has unique visibility into institutional inflows and outflows. If its research team considers the Power Law support line a valid indicator, it suggests that institutions basing decisions on these analyses may see current price levels as a strategic long-term accumulation opportunity.

Where Does the Support Line Stand Today?

The most cited Power Law models place Bitcoin’s support line between $40,000 and $55,000 for the current period, depending on the exact parameters used by each analyst. With Bitcoin at $62,700, the asset sits roughly 15% to 35% above this theoretical support zone. Historically, each time BTC has come within 10% of this line, it has quickly rebounded, often dramatically — as in March 2020, when the price touched the line during the COVID crash before multiplying by 6 in the following months.

It is important to note that the Power Law is not a short-term price prediction but a long-term relative value indicator. Institutional investors use it more to assess whether Bitcoin is “cheap” or “expensive” relative to its historical trend than to time their market entries and exits. In the current context, Bitcoin trading relatively close to its support line suggests that the downside risk over the long term is limited compared to the upside potential.

Why This Signal Is Particularly Relevant in July 2026

Several factors make the observation of the Power Law especially relevant right now. First, the market is undergoing a prolonged consolidation phase after the 2024–2025 all-time high. This kind of sideways accumulation period — with BTC oscillating between $58,000 and $70,000 for...